Impact of Lake-Level Reductions on Lake Conroe Area – Texas A&M Report

Here is the final report for Texas A&M estimating the impact of the lake level reductions: Lake-Conroe-Final-Report

Bottom Line Summary

  • The GRP scenarios are likely to impact lake-levels significantly. Lake-levels are expected to fall more than four feet below full pool 1.6 times more often in phase one than in prior periods, and increase to 8.5 times more often in phase four.
  • Direct economic impacts are most likely to occur geographically near the lake.
  • Residential properties in lakefront communities enjoy a 15% premium, which declines quickly with geographic distance.
  • Residents in lakefront communities expect a 28% decline in residential property values, in which case losses in real estate values would amount to $1.1 billion in the area.
  • For each foot of lake-level decline beyond the first two feet, retail trade revenue in the City of Montgomery decreases about $414,000 per quarter per foot, or about $1.6 million per year per foot.

Lake Conroe’s impact worth measuring

Published by The Conroe Courier – Over the years, development has enveloped Lake Conroe, representing a sizeable contribution to the Montgomery County economy.

But exactly how big is that contribution, and exactly how would the county be affected if lake levels in a time of drought dropped 12 feet or more?

It’s a question that deserves an answer, but it’s going to cost some money to get it.

The Lake Conroe Communities Network is seeking participants and funding for a quantitative study of the economic impact of lower lake levels. If lake levels were to drop significantly, it would definitely have an impact on the Lake Conroe economy, and would begin to dry up sales tax revenues and eventually could affect revenues from property values. The objective of the study, according to our story by Reporter Howard Roden, would be to provide an assessment of the economic impact from sustained lower water levels of the lake. The study would include surveys of local residents, historical analysis and study of other communities in comparable circumstances.

The network is asking city of Montgomery officials for a contribution of $5,000 to help fund an economic study of the area based on declining water levels. The proposed study by Texas A&M University would cost approximately $140,000 and take up to 16 months to complete. Already, according to the network, the Lake Conroe Association, the city of Conroe and Commissioners Court have pledged support to the project.

It’s clear, from just a glance at the residential and business development that surrounds it, that Lake Conroe is a key part of the county’s economic success. It would be worthwhile knowing exactly how significant that impact really is, and how plummeting lake levels could affect that value. For more information about the LCCN effort to raise support for a study of the economic impact of lower water levels on Lake Conroe, call (936) 448-1809.

LCA PRESIDENT’S UPDATE

In late September, the LCA conducted a survey to establish the understanding of water conservation, the use of surface water, the effect of using surface water on the level of Lake Conroe, and the economic impact the lake has on the Montgomery County economy. Senator Nichols presented the results of the survey to the participants at the “Water Summit”. The results of the survey are presented below:

 LAKE CONROE ASOCIATION

SUMMARY OF SEPT’09 “QUESTION AND ANSWER SURVEY”….2,565 RESPONSES

 1.        96% were aware that water is a most valuable resource and that the aquifer is depleting (2,465 “yes” and 100 ”no”)

2.       85% were aware that Lake Conroe was built as a reservoir to provide water for the City of Houston and Montgomery County (2,189 “yes” and 376 “no”)

3.       86% were aware that Montgomery County residents must reduce water consumption from aquifers (underground water) by 30% by 2015 (now 2016) (2,197 “yes” and 368 “no”)

4.       86% were aware that a proposed solution to reducing water consumption from aquifers is to pump the needed water out of Lake Conroe (2,200 “yes” and 365 “no”)

5.       97% were aware that pumping water out of Lake Conroe will lower the lake’s level unless alternative sources of water for Montgomery County are identified (2,484 “yes” and 81 “no”)

6.       97% believe lowering the level of Lake Conroe will hurt our local economy (2,480 “yes” and 85 “no”)

7.       97% believe lowering the level of Lake Conroe will hurt local property values (2,490 “yes” and 75 “no”)

8.       91% are concerned lowering the level of Lake Conroe could damage the structural integrity of the dam (especially during storms) (2,323 “yes” and “242 “no”)

9.       98% believe lowering the level of Lake Conroe will, at times, restrict access to the lake for recreational use of boaters and anglers (2,521 “yes” and 44 “no”)

10.   94% believe lowering the level of Lake Conroe may damage integral native aquatic plant life which provides fish and bird habitat, controls shoreline erosion, and contributes to water quality (2,420 “yes” and 145 “no”)

11.   92% believe lowering the level of Lake Conroe may promote excessive growth of noxious, invasive, non-native vegetation such as Hydrilla (2,368 “yes” and 197 “no”)

12.   95% believe strong water conservation measures must be implemented in existing sub-divisions (2,427 “yes” and 138 “no”)

13.   97% believe that all future land developments must be approved with regulations restricting amenity lakes and irrigation systems that use ground water or surface water (2,496 “yes” and 69 “no”)

14.   98% believe this water shortage problem should be solved with all available options instead of simply using water from Lake Conroe (2,521 “yes” and 44 “no”)

 

Mike Bleier, President

Lake Conroe Association